The "Trump deal" put a lot of pressure on the metal market on November 6, and overnight London copper and London zinc fell by more than 4%. However, as the market's macro trading sentiment gradually cools down, it is believed that the metal market will return to fundamental trading. However, Trump's policy propositions and the economic policies he has implemented after taking office may disturb the direction of the metal market from time to time!

On November 6, the copper price experienced a high and then fell in the early trading, and the trading sentiment of the electrolytic copper spot market was also sluggish in the early trading stage, and the spot discount continued to expand. It is worth noting that at the beginning of the week, the market found that the "Trump deal" retreated, the US dollar fell, and the copper price remained strong for two consecutive days, and re-stood at the 77,000 yuan/ton mark on November 5, and Shanghai copper jumped on all recent moving averages. In the past two days, the import window of Shanghai copper for the LME March contract in the current month has been opened and closed, and the daily fluctuations have been frequent.


However, as Trump's election situation continues to gain an advantage, the "Harris deal" fades and the "Trump deal" heats up again. The market prefers safe-haven assets for risk aversion reasons, and Trump's election is good for the US dollar. The US dollar index once rose to above 105 points during the day, hitting a 4-month high.

Copper, as a risky asset, is obviously under pressure to go down, but as of 3 pm on November 6, Shanghai copper only gave up the gains of the "Trump deal ebb" in the past two days and continued to fluctuate in the range of 76,500-77,000 yuan/ton. After the election results were announced, Shanghai copper stopped falling, and London copper continued to rebound. With the announcement of the news that "US Republican presidential candidate Trump announced his victory in the 2024 presidential election in the early morning of the 6th," market transactions gradually calmed down, but copper, as a risky asset, will inevitably be affected by the upward trend of the US dollar. Looking ahead to the future market, Trump's election will continue to be good for the US dollar and US bonds, and copper will be under some pressure on the macro level.

However, considering that copper raw materials will continue to be tight in 2025 and global copper demand is expected to improve, copper prices will continue to receive bottom support. And after the US election, the country may further release macro-positive factors, and there is room for growth, which will further make copper prices relatively strong.
Shanghai Nonferrous Network
https://news.smm.cn/news/103028125